NVM-WP 2026/04
THE FISCAL ARCHITECTURE OF ABUNDANCE: Resource Rents, Regressive Taxation and the Recovery of Africa's Own Revenue
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African states are taxing the wrong base. The average tax-to-GDP ratio across 38 African countries was 16.1% in 2023 against 33.9% in the OECD, and goods and services taxes supplied 51.2% of everything collected. A continent holding roughly 30% of the world's mineral reserves raises most of its public revenue from the consumption of people who spend everything they earn. This paper argues that the failure is a misdirection of the instrument rather than a shortage of capacity, and measures it in four quantities. The base is invisible: extractive revenues are not systematically identified in national revenue classifications. It leaks: 321 to 474 tonnes of artisanal gold, up to 41% of continental production and worth up to US$35 billion a year, goes undeclared. It is shifted: illicit flows run at US$88.6 billion, 3.7% of GDP, with 77% of the extractive component in gold alone. And it is given away: tax expenditures average about 3% of GDP while some 30% of sub-Saharan states hold no inventory of them. Adjusted for overlap, the leakage equals between a third and a half of total tax revenue. Rent is then established as the efficient, equitable and administrable base that consumption is not; the fiscal contract objection is answered by relocating accountability from the source of a revenue to its visibility and the rule on its disposal; and a 7-instrument rent recovery stack is specified. Two demonstrations carry the weight. Botswana captured mineral revenues equal to about 95% of mineral rents between 1983 and 2014, through information instruments rather than rates. Ghana, within 18 months, repealed its most regressive levies, formalised the artisanal gold channel and replaced a flat 5% royalty with a price-linked scale. The central proposition is that rent capture is an information contest before it is a rate contest, and that what Africa lacks is institutional wealth: the funded, legally protected capacity to know what it owns and what has been taken.
Keywords Domestic resource mobilisation; economic rent; mineral royalties; resource rent tax; regressive taxation; illicit financial flows; tax expenditures; sovereign wealth funds; fiscal contract; Metanomics.
