NVM-WP 2026/10
COUNTING THE GREEN PHARMACY: A Satellite Account for Ghana's Traditional Plant Medicine Economy, 2026
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Traditional plant medicine supplies primary healthcare to the majority of Ghanaians, yet it appears nowhere in Ghana’s national accounts, and the most widely cited valuation of the sector rests on a survey of 27 market stalls conducted in August 2010. This paper constructs the first national-accounts-consistent estimate of the sector for the reference year 2026. Using a 6-layer production approach with Monte Carlo simulation over parameter uncertainty and reporting three distinct aggregates rather than a single headline, final demand for plant medicine is estimated at GHS 11.36 billion, equivalent to USD 988 million, with a 90% credible interval of GHS 8.24 to 15.27 billion, or USD 717 million to USD 1.33 billion. Gross output across the chain is GHS 12.50 billion, or USD 1.09 billion, and value added is GHS 7.55 billion, or USD 657 million, equivalent to 0.50% of gross domestic product. Part of the sector is already measured but misclassified: GHS 3.07 billion, or USD 267 million, of its value already sits inside the national accounts under beverages, agriculture and manufacturing, the largest part through a herbal bitters and tonic channel led by Kasapreko PLC, with turnover of GHS 3.82 billion, or USD 332 million. Correctly attributing the healthservice component would raise Ghana’s current health expenditure by 11.4% and its health expenditure ratio from 3.95% to 4.40% of gross domestic product. A variance decomposition shows that 93% of the variance of the final demand estimate is carried by three household expenditure parameters, none of which is presently collected by any Ghanaian statistical instrument. The principal policy implication is that a short traditional medicine expenditure module in an existing national household survey would narrow the credible interval to about a quarter of its present width at low cost, and would do more to make the sector visible to policy than any of the regulatory reforms currently under discussion.
Keywords traditional medicine; satellite accounts; informal economy; national accounting; health financing; Ghana; measurement; indigenous knowledge
